Thailand Economy Faces Limited Recovery as Central Bank Boosts SME Lending

Bank of America Securities says Thailand’s economic recovery will remain limited and uneven, with growth unlikely to reach the potential 2.5‑3% range over the next two years. Export strength in electronics persists, but domestic production is weak and heavily dependent on imported components, making the economy vulnerable to energy price fluctuations.

The Bank of Thailand projects that SME loans will increase by 1.3 trillion baht (about 600 billion yen) by the end of next year, driven by the SME Credit Boost and SME Secured‑Plus programmes. Large‑firm lending is up 4.8%, yet SME credit remains below pre‑pandemic levels, with regional disparities and high non‑performing loan ratios. The central bank has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3% from 1.5%.