Thailand economy to grow via AI and exports despite K-shaped recovery

SCB EIC forecasts that the Thai economy will grow by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, driven primarily by a global AI investment cycle. This cycle is expected to boost electronics exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) in digital and technology sectors.

However, the research highlights a pronounced K-shaped recovery. While export-oriented industries and tech-related businesses benefit from increased investment, the gains are limited in their connection to the broader domestic economy. This is due to a high reliance on imported capital goods and raw materials.

Consequently, benefits such as income and employment remain concentrated in specific sectors, leaving many households and SMEs vulnerable due to debt, low income, and limited credit access. Future growth depends on Thailand's ability to integrate local entrepreneurs into new supply chains and increase domestic value addition. Key risks include Middle East conflicts, US trade protectionism, and climate-related factors like Super El Niño.