The Doomsday Equation and the 2026 population prediction

In 1960, researchers Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora, and Lawrence Amiot published a paper in the journal Science titled “Doomsday: Friday, November 13, 2026.” Unlike modern apocalyptic theories involving climate change, nuclear war, or artificial intelligence, this prediction was based solely on human population growth.

The researchers, from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, argued that based on demographic estimates from 400 B.C. to 1958, the time required for the human population to double was decreasing. Their mathematical model suggested that human population growth would tend toward infinity by November 2026, leading to a scenario where future generations would be “crushed” by the sheer mass of people.

Despite the dramatic title, the theory does not imply a literal end to the world, but rather serves as a mathematical exploration of hyper-exponential population growth patterns observed in historical data.