The Economist estimates Russian military casualties could exceed 2 million

A new statistical analysis by The Economist suggests that Russian military casualties, including both killed and wounded, could range between 1.4 million and 2.1 million since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

According to the report, the number of Russian soldiers killed could be as high as 770,000, while the number of fatalities alone is estimated to be between 374,000 and 770,000. These figures represent a significant increase from previous estimates. In May 2026, the publication estimated fatalities between 280,000 and 518,000, with total casualties between 1.1 million and 1.5 million.

Because Russia does not release reliable or complete data regarding its military losses, The Economist utilized a statistical model incorporating information from Western intelligence services, defense institutions, and independent researchers. The analysis also notes shifts on the battlefield, reporting that Ukrainian forces have reclaimed 73 square kilometers of territory in recent counteroffensive operations, partially offsetting Russian territorial gains from earlier this year.