Tiger mosquito expansion threatens most of France by 2085

A study published in Global Change Biology indicates that under high-pressure climate scenarios, between 89% and 96% of metropolitan France could be suitable for the establishment of the tiger mosquito by 2085. Only mountainous regions are expected to remain unaffected.

Researchers from the Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD), Cirad, and the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics simulated the expansion of this mosquito, which acts as a vector for arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. The study notes that in high-emission scenarios, indigenous transmission of dengue could theoretically occur in almost all colonized areas, except for certain reliefs and northern plains.

In regions with low population density, while the environment may be only moderately suitable for the mosquito, the potential for dengue transmission is higher because each mosquito bites a smaller number of people repeatedly, increasing the spread. The presence of the tiger mosquito in France has already expanded significantly, growing from a single department in 2004 to 81 departments by 2025.

On a local level, residents in cities like Lyon report that the invasive species has made outdoor living difficult during the summer months, describing the insect's presence as an ongoing struggle.