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[INTERNATIONAL] · Ethiopia, Eritrea, United Arab Emirates · 7 sources

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Tigray peace process faces instability as TPLF repositions

Following the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which was intended to end the war between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), significant political and military tensions remain in the Tigray region.

While the large-scale war has ceased and some heavy weapons have been handed over, the disarmament and demobilization process remains incomplete. Since 2024, the TPLF has reportedly repositioned itself politically and organizationally. This shift includes reported contacts with Eritrean officials in locations such as Dubai and Zalambessa, as well as renewed struggles for political control within Tigray.

Additional developments include reports of new recruitment and mobilization efforts by Tigrayan forces, new clashes, and the emergence of Tsimdo, a loose convergence of groups opposing the federal government. These factors raise questions regarding whether the peace agreement has successfully transitioned the region to stability or merely provided a period for the TPLF to regroup.

Entities

Eritrea · Ethiopia · Pretoria Agreement · Tigray People’s Liberation Front · Tsimdo

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