Tom Cotton holds 16-point lead in Arkansas Senate poll

A new poll by J. L. Partners indicates that Republican Senator Tom Cotton holds a commanding 16-point lead in Arkansas, countering previous surveys that suggested a tighter race.

The J. L. Partners poll of 803 registered voters found Cotton with 51% support, while Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner trailed at 35%. Libertarian candidate Jeff Wadlin received 4%, with 11% of respondents undecided. This result follows a July survey by the progressive firm 2040 Strategy Group, which had placed Shoffner within 3 points of Cotton.

James Johnson, co-founder of J. L. Partners, noted that while Democrats are performing better in Arkansas than in previous cycles, the state remains a Republican stronghold. Cotton’s current lead, though significant, is smaller than his 33-point victory margin in 2020.