Trade analysis shows foreign exporters absorbed 47% of Trump tariffs

A new analysis by the Tax Foundation, based on research by trade expert Caroline Freund, suggests that foreign exporters absorbed 47 percent of the tariff burden imposed by the Trump administration. This contradicts previous assumptions that American importers bore between 90 and 100 percent of the costs.

While importers are legally responsible for paying the tariffs, the study indicates that foreign exporters often lower prices to maintain sales volumes, thereby sharing the economic burden. The research analyzed import data from September 2023 to January 2026 across 50 major trading partners. Additionally, some importers mitigated costs by switching to lower-quality, cheaper products within the same categories.

Freund notes that the absorption of costs by foreign exporters does not necessarily imply that the tariffs were successful or beneficial to the U.S. economy. A full assessment would require measuring losses caused by trade flow disruptions, lost trade opportunities, retaliatory measures, and general economic inefficiency.