Türkiye economic indicators show debt rise and reserve decline

Türkiye’s short-term external debt stock reached $176.6 billion at the end of August, a monthly increase of $25 million. When accounting for remaining maturity, the debt due within one year stands at $243.3 billion. While bank-related short-term external debt decreased by 1.6 percent to $76.3 billion, cash loan liabilities in other sectors rose by 6.6 percent to $10 billion. The debt composition is led by the US dollar at 34 percent, followed by the euro at 27.1 percent and the Turkish lira at 25.6 percent.

Simultaneously, preliminary calculations based on Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) analytical balance sheet data indicate that total reserves fell by approximately $2.5 billion during the week ending October 16, 2026, dropping to an estimated $169.1 billion. This follows a period of volatility throughout 2026, where reserves reached a peak of $218.2 billion in January before experiencing significant fluctuations.

In anticipation of the upcoming interest rate decision on October 22, economists are forecasting a potential 100 basis point reduction in the policy rate, moving it from 37 percent to 36 percent.