Trump administration proposes 2030 Census changes

Proposed changes to the 2030 U.S. Census by the Trump administration could significantly alter congressional apportionment and electoral votes. A regulation published in the Federal Register suggests a shift in how populations are counted, specifically proposing to exclude illegal immigrants and legal residents with a status lower than a green card from the census data.

Research from the Center for Immigration Studies indicates that under the current model, which counts total population, states like California, Texas, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Florida are projected to gain congressional seats. Conversely, states such as Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin could lose seats.

However, Steven Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies, notes that the new proposal could reverse this dynamic. By excluding noncitizens, Midwestern battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin might retain more influence, while large states with high immigrant populations, such as California and Texas, would see reduced gains. The proposed rule also includes the elimination of census questions regarding race and sexual preference.