Trump Trade Index Falls 16% Amid US‑Iran Conflict

The Ned Davis Research Trump Trade Index, which tracks about a dozen ETFs expected to benefit from former President Donald Trump’s agenda on housing construction, defense spending and reshoring of manufacturing, has dropped around 16% since May. After beating the S&P 500 earlier in the year, the index slipped into negative territory as the United States’ conflict with Iran pushed energy prices higher, lifted inflation expectations, raised interest rates and strengthened the dollar. Ned Davis chief strategist Pat Tschosik linked the decline directly to the war and rising inflation, while BCA Research geopolitics chief Matt Gertken noted that investors who backed Trump‑focused themes faced setbacks, with AI‑related investments outperforming traditional cyclical stocks.