Trump support among independents drops sharply in second term

New analysis by the AP‑NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that independent voters have grown increasingly unhappy with President Donald Trump during his second term. Approval among independents fell from roughly half supporting him around the 2024 election to about one‑quarter by spring 2026, erasing the previous education gap. Non‑college independents dropped from 48% favorable before his return to office to 31% during the first 100 days and to roughly 25% during the government shutdown and early 2026. Hispanic, Black and younger independents also show marked declines.

The findings aggregate nearly two dozen AP‑NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026 and are echoed by other trackers: Civiqs records a net approval shift from –5 to –33 among independents, while the Economist/YouGov poll hit a record‑low net approval of –50. PRRI data shows favorability falling from 35% to 25%.

Researchers note the trend could threaten Republican prospects in the 2026 midterm elections, as independents often decide close House and Senate races. “Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” said Tafari Torres, senior research associate at NORC. Sean Collins added, “The decline among no‑college independents was steeper and it was greater than the slight decline in college independents.”