Tunisia credit rating maintained at ‘B-’ by S&P and Fitch

S&P and Fitch have maintained Tunisia’s credit rating at ‘B-’ with a ‘stable’ outlook. The rating is supported by external factors, including funding from international donors and loans from central banks.

However, the country faces economic pressures as an energy importer. Conflicts in the Middle East have impacted energy costs, specifically through the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which increases fuel prices and widens current account deficits. The government is struggling to compensate for rising subsidy expenses.

Fitch projects the budget deficit could reach 6.4% of GDP this year, significantly higher than the 3.3% median for other ‘B-’ rated nations. Fuel subsidies alone are expected to contribute 0.8 percentage points to this increase. If crude oil prices remain at $87 per barrel through 2028, the deficit could worsen by an additional 1.4 percentage points.