Tunisia water scarcity could reduce GDP by 6.4% by 2050

A World Bank report titled ‘Tunisia’s Water Challenge: From Scarcity to Resilience’ warns that water shortages could reduce Tunisia’s GDP by 6.4% by 2050. The country currently has only 380 cubic meters of renewable freshwater per inhabitant annually, falling below the international absolute scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters.

The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable, employing approximately 14% of the national workforce and up to half of rural workers. Without intervention, climate stress and water scarcity could result in the loss of at least 30% of agricultural jobs by mid-century, impacting agro-industry, tourism, and manufacturing.

Economically, Tunisia is experiencing a modest recovery with a 2.7% GDP increase in 2025 and a projected 2.3% growth in 2026. However, structural imbalances remain. While the offshore sector performs well, the onshore sector only covers 44% of its needs. Despite a reported drop in unemployment to 14.9% in the second quarter of 2026, analysts note a significant loss of female employment and a fragile recovery dependent on climate conditions.

To address these challenges, the World Bank recommends annual investments of approximately $900 million through 2050, alongside reforms in water governance, network loss reduction, wastewater reuse, and digitalization.