Turkey central bank expected to hold interest rates at September meeting

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) is widely expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 37% during its upcoming meeting on September 10. Financial institutions surveyed by BloombergHT unanimously predicted the bank will hold its current policy stance to address sticky domestic inflation and fragile foreign capital flows.

Recent data from Turkstat reported official annual inflation at 31.51% for August. Analysts from ING suggest that while the CBRT is likely to hold rates in September following recent liquidity normalization via weekly repo auctions, two 100-basis-point cuts could occur in the fourth quarter. This would bring the policy rate down to 35%, a level some economists expect to remain at through the end of 2026, provided that geopolitical tensions in the Gulf do not create further upside inflation risks.