Turkey's Lira Depreciation and Export Slowdown Detailed in Goldman Sachs Report

A Goldman Sachs research note says Turkey could permit a faster depreciation of the Turkish lira, potentially reaching the mid‑20% range of annual loss against the dollar, in order to prioritise external‑balance stability over the disinflation programme. The analysis notes the central bank’s policy rate is around 37%, inflation ran at 32.1% in June and the lira has already lost about 9% versus the dollar this year, while consumer prices rose over 17% in the first half of the year.

The same report highlights that Turkey’s export growth, once among the strongest among emerging markets from 2009‑2019, has stalled. Real exports were largely flat in 2022‑2024 and are expected to decline from the second half of 2025. Weakness first appeared in intermediate goods, then in consumer goods, with capital goods performing better. Market share in intermediates has shifted to China and non‑EU markets, while losses in consumer‑goods markets have been partly offset by Central and Eastern European buyers. The slowdown is projected to widen the current‑account deficit to roughly $60 billion, about 3.5% of GDP, by 2026.