Turkey's rising influence in Syria sparks Israeli security concerns

Increasing Turkish influence in Syria is heightening security concerns in Israel. Following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, Turkey has emerged as a major supporter of the new Syrian government. A recent visit by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to Damascus, where he met with President Ahmed al-Sara, underscored this shifting balance of power.

Israel fears that Turkey may seek a permanent military presence in Syria. Tensions escalated in August when Israel bombed the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northern Syria. Israeli officials claimed the strike was intended to prevent the deployment of Turkish forces and anti-aircraft systems that could restrict Israeli air operations. While Damascus denied plans for a permanent Turkish base, stating that military visits were for training and cooperation, the potential for a fragmented Syria remains a significant concern.

Analysts suggest that Syria may face a process of fragmentation similar to Lebanon, with different zones of influence. This could involve Turkish influence in the north and Israeli influence in the south, potentially leading to a multi-factional state involving Druze, Kurdish, and Alawite communities.