Turkish Central Bank reports trade surplus improves in Q2 despite higher energy prices

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) published a blog analysis noting that, although energy prices rose sharply in the second quarter—Brent crude up 55.2% year‑on‑year and natural gas up 28.2%—energy imports increased 32.4%, the country's external trade balance improved.

The improvement is attributed to strong export performance, which grew both annually and quarter‑on‑quarter, offsetting the higher energy bill. Tight monetary policy limited domestic demand, slowing non‑energy imports and supporting the surplus. The bank also highlighted reduced geopolitical risk and a normalisation of energy prices, lowering the upside risk to the current account. Export gains were driven by renewed demand from Europe and a rebound in shipments to the Middle East after an initial post‑war drop, while supply‑chain shifts and the closure of the Hürmüz Strait affected Far‑East shipments and raised freight and insurance costs.

The TCMB concluded that "energy prices rose, but export performance kept the trade balance improving," signalling a more resilient external sector amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.