Turkish seismologist warns Istanbul of overlooked Çınarcık Çukuru quake risk

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş, a retired geology professor from Karadeniz Technical University, highlighted the Çınarcık Çukuru—located south of Istanbul—as a critical, yet under‑examined seismic focus. He explained that the basin sits between opposing stress transfers from historic earthquake sequences (west‑to‑east in 1912, 2011‑2025 and east‑to‑west in 1935 and 1999), making it highly sensitive to strain changes.

Bektaş warned that weak faults surrounding the Çınarcık basin could generate intermediate‑magnitude (M6+) earthquakes similar to the 1963 Adalar event, and that after‑shocks from the 1999 İzmit and 2025 Marmara quakes already cluster around the area. He called for research to prioritize measurable data—sea‑floor geodesy, GPS, seismicity, and Coulomb stress models—over assumptions, urging authorities to incorporate these findings into updated hazard assessments.