UK economic data shows falling vacancies and rising inflation expectations

Recent data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicates shifting trends in the British economy. Job vacancies fell to 691,000 for the July-September 2026 period, marking the largest quarterly decline this year and the lowest level since 2014, excluding the pandemic. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% and the employment rate rose to 75.3%, total pay growth slowed to 3.7%, its lowest rate in nearly six years.

Simultaneously, market attention is focused on upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. Analysts anticipate a 0.3% monthly increase in consumer inflation for September, with the year-on-year rate expected to accelerate to 3.4% from 3.1%. Core inflation is also projected to rise to 2.8%. These inflationary pressures, potentially exacerbated by rising crude oil prices, may influence the Bank of England's decision regarding interest rate hikes in its upcoming monetary policy meetings.