UK economy projected to lose up to 8% of GDP from Brexit, new studies find

Recent economic analyses estimate that the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union will reduce its gross domestic product by 6%‑8% by the end of 2025. A synthetic‑control study by six National Bureau of Economic Research economists, cited by Professor Gonçalo Pina (ESCP Business School), finds investment down 12%‑13% and employment and productivity each falling 3%‑4% as a result of Brexit‑related uncertainty, costs and trade barriers. Further research by Eleonora Alabrese and colleagues measures an aggregate loss of five to ten percentage points of GDP, affecting roughly 70% of local authorities. European economist Marianne Mueller (BNP Paribas) notes that UK export and import growth rates (+3.8% and +4.9% respectively between 2021‑2025) lag behind comparable economies, reflecting reduced foreign investment attractiveness. Analysts stress that the internal market has shrunk and that the UK’s growth trajectory has been significantly dampened since the formal exit on 31 January 2020.