UK economy still weakened ten years after Brexit

A decade after the 2016 referendum, analyses show the United Kingdom’s economy has underperformed. A joint study by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Bank of England estimates Brexit reduced GDP by 6‑8 % by the end of 2025, equating to an annual loss of £100‑200 billion. Business investment fell 11‑18 % and employment and labour productivity stagnated by about 4 % compared with a non‑Brexit scenario. Real goods exports to the EU are down 6.5 % from 2015 levels, widening the trade deficit with the bloc to a record £139 billion, while the services sector posted a £46 billion surplus. The labour market faces chronic shortages in agriculture, transport and hospitality as European workers leave. Public opinion has shifted, with roughly half of Britons now viewing Brexit as a mistake and 45 % favouring re‑entry. Political leaders continue to debate upgrading relations with the EU, but no consensus has emerged, leaving the economic fallout largely unresolved.

The findings underscore that the promised benefits of decoupling have not materialised, and that modest regulatory alignment would only boost growth by 1.7‑2.2 %. The UK’s economic trajectory remains constrained by trade frictions and structural challenges stemming from the departure.