UK Grocery Market Faces Prolonged Weak Demand Despite Value Growth

IGD projects the UK grocery market will expand by more than £45 billion over the next five years, reaching a total value of about £303.7 billion by 2031. The growth is expected to be driven mainly by inflation and population increases rather than a genuine recovery in consumer demand, which IGD describes as structurally weak.

Analysts cite ongoing economic pressure, lasting changes in shopper behaviour and the rollout of GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs, which alone could offset roughly £11.2 billion of the projected market growth. Online grocery is forecast to be the fastest‑growing channel with a 5.6% compound annual growth rate, while discount retailers are set to grow at 3.6%, narrowing the gap with convenience stores.

Supermarkets will remain the largest contributor, adding about £17.9 billion in value, but they are expected to lose share to faster‑growing formats. Policy measures such as HFSS regulations and shifting health habits are also anticipated to reshape category mix and purchasing patterns.