UK heat pump rollout stalls amid high costs and policy confusion

The United Kingdom’s heat‑pump market has fallen far short of government ambitions. An original target of 600,000 installations per year by 2028 was cut to 450,000 by 2030, and analysts warn the sector may see its first decline in a decade as early as 2026.

Sales average about 125,000 units annually – roughly 7 % of the heating market – compared with 1.7 million gas and oil boilers. Growth was driven by a boiler‑upgrade grant of up to £7,500 introduced in 2022, which spurred a 56 % rise in 2024 and a further 27 % in 2025, according to the Heat Pump Association. Experts attribute the slowdown to high electricity prices and a “confusing mess” of policy changes. “We are way off track,” says heating specialist Richard Lowes of the Regulatory Assistance Project.

Manufacturers are seeking new angles, such as devices that also provide cooling. Octopus Energy will test its “Cosy Cooler” add‑on this month, and Samsung has launched the Quint Outdoor system that combines heating, hot‑water and cooling functions, which could help revive demand.