UK North Sea windfall tax replacement faces £8.6bn revenue warning

Climate campaigners and advocacy groups are warning that replacing the UK’s North Sea windfall tax could result in a loss of up to £8.6 billion by 2030. The government plans to transition from the current energy profits levy to a new system called the oil and gas revenue levy (OGRL) in 2030.

Industry body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) is advocating for the new tax regime to be implemented sooner, suggesting that an earlier transition combined with more pragmatic licensing could unlock 111 projects on the UK Continental Shelf.

However, organizations including Global Witness, Greenpeace UK, and the End Fuel Poverty Coalition have criticized these calls for tax breaks. Research from Global Witness indicates that if oil prices remain at approximately $100 per barrel, the OGRL would raise £8.6 billion less than the current levy by 2030. If prices drop to $70 per barrel, the new system could yield no revenue, whereas the current windfall tax could raise £4.6 billion in the same period. Campaigners have sent a letter to Chancellor John Healey urging the government to resist industry pressure to end the windfall tax early.