UK productivity data shows conflicting trends in public and private sectors

Conflicting reports have emerged regarding the state of United Kingdom productivity. Official estimates from the Office for National Statistics indicate that public-service productivity in 2025 remains 2.5% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels, despite consecutive years of growth. EY has estimated that if public-sector productivity had matched private-sector growth between 2019 and 2024, the UK GDP would have been approximately 3% larger, representing a value of roughly £80 billion annually. This gap has fueled political debates regarding management, technology, and the impact of working from home.

Conversely, analysis from the Resolution Foundation suggests that UK productivity may be growing more strongly than official figures indicate. The thinktank argues that using a more accurate snapshot of the workforce than the standard labour force survey reveals an improvement in recent years. The foundation rejects theories that recent gains are solely due to an AI boom or shifts in low-skilled sectors like hospitality and retail, suggesting instead that the recovery is being driven by existing workers within their current sectors.