Ukraine EU membership unlikely this decade, diplomat suggests

An unnamed European diplomat has suggested that Ukraine is unlikely to join the European Union by the end of this decade, and expressed uncertainty regarding whether membership will ever occur. The diplomat, cited by Rapporteur, argued that providing military aid and pursuing NATO membership might be more effective forms of support than offering what they termed ‘false hopes’ regarding EU accession.

While Ukraine and Moldova applied for membership in 2022 and have had their candidacies considered in parallel, diplomats suggest that their negotiation processes may eventually diverge. Ukraine has explicitly rejected any ‘semi-membership’ models or interim arrangements that do not lead to full membership. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Georgiy Tykhyi stated that the country will not accept restrictions presented as alternatives to full status.

The European Commission recently proposed a framework for the phased integration of candidate countries into specific parts of the single market and closer cooperation in strategic areas prior to full accession. This framework ties financial support to progress in reforms and improvements in national financial control.