Ukraine faces Russian missile production surge amid Western supply shortages

Ukraine is struggling to keep pace with Russian missile production, which reportedly exceeds the combined global capacity to produce interceptors for the American Patriot system. Serhii Beskrestnov, an advisor to the Ukrainian president, warned that Russia possesses the capacity to produce more than 200 ballistic and cruise missiles per month.

European stockpiles of PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptor missiles have reached critically low levels, causing some nations to hesitate in providing further munitions due to fears of depleting their own air defenses. While the United States has approved missile sales worth 2.1 billion dollars, significant deliveries of German-made PAC-2 interceptors are not expected until 2027 or 2028.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that providing long-range weaponry, such as American Tomahawk cruise missiles and German Taurus missiles, could shift the strategic landscape. Such weapons would allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory, targeting critical infrastructure like the Alabuga drone manufacturing zone in Tatarstan and the Engels-2 airbase in the Saratov region.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has intensified calls for long-range capabilities to counter Russian ballistic missile strikes, noting that recent massive offensives have overwhelmed existing air defenses.