Ukraine intelligence warns Russia may exhaust military capacity by 2028

Oleh Ivashchenko, chief of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), warns that Russia may exhaust its military and economic resources required to sustain the war by 2028 if current trends continue.

Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia is recruiting between 1,000 and 1,200 soldiers daily, but losses are outpacing recruitment. Estimates suggest a monthly manpower shortfall of approximately 6,000 soldiers. Notably, fatalities are reported to account for roughly 60% of Russian military losses, a ratio described as being among the highest in modern armed conflict.

To compensate for personnel shortages, Russia is utilizing foreign troops, including citizens from North Korea. The HUR anticipates the number of North Korean personnel deployed to Russia could rise from 8,000 to nearly 50,000. Additionally, there are concerns that Russian leadership may eventually announce a large-scale mobilization of up to 800,000 troops, though training capacities may limit simultaneous integration to between 300,000 and 500,000 recruits.