Ukraine intelligence warns Russia seeks continued war through 2026

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (HUR) reports that Russia shows no intention of seeking a peace agreement through the end of 2026. Vadym Skibitsky, deputy chief of HUR, stated that President Vladimir Putin aims to continue military operations to achieve territorial goals, specifically the full occupation of the Donetsk region.

Intelligence assessments suggest Russia may intensify attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure during the upcoming autumn and winter. Targeted sectors include the defense industry, energy grids, logistics, fuel stations, and gas production facilities in the Poltava and Kharkiv regions. Skibitsky noted that electricity and heating systems are particularly vulnerable, and highlighted the development of specialized Russian drones designed to destroy high-voltage power lines by cutting through metal.

Furthermore, HUR officials do not rule out a new wave of Russian mobilization following elections. While Russia currently lacks the manpower to form new military units, a new mobilization could allow for the creation of significant attack forces by early 2027. Currently, an estimated 670,000 Russian troops are participating in combat operations in Ukraine, with an additional 65,000 in operational reserve.