Ukraine military campaign and Russian political crackdowns

Ukraine's recent 40-day military campaign, aimed at pressuring Russia through strikes on refineries and logistics hubs, has concluded without forcing a peace settlement. While the strikes caused temporary disruptions, such as fuel crises and logistics issues for companies like Wildberries, Russia has largely mitigated the damage by strengthening defense systems and shifting operations to Kazakhstan.

In response, Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, leading to the closure of Black Sea ports and disrupting grain and ore exports. Simultaneously, Russian forces continue their advance in the Donetsk region. Ukraine faces a critical shortage of Patriot missile interceptors as U.S. supplies are diverted to conflicts involving Iran.

Domestically, the Russian political landscape is shifting following the ban of the Yabloko party. Authorities prohibited the party, which had gained social media popularity as an anti-war voice, alleging illegal foreign funding. The ban triggered rare street protests in Russia, resulting in several arrests. The suppression of the party has also caused divisions within the exiled Russian opposition.