Ukraine steel industry faces collapse due to Russian attacks

The Ukrainian steel industry faces a potential collapse by 2027 due to continuous Russian attacks on industrial complexes. According to analysts at the GMK Center, steel production could drop by 39% in 2026 and potentially reach zero by 2027.

This decline is expected to reduce metallurgical export revenues by approximately $2.5 billion in 2026 and an additional $2.5 billion in 2027. Furthermore, Ukraine may face a $1.5 billion cost in 2027 to replace domestic steel with imports, contributing to an estimated $6.5 billion decline in the overall trade balance compared to 2025. Iron ore production is also projected to fall by 37% in 2026 and 55% in 2027.

Currently, only six major steel complexes remain operational, mostly located within or near combat zones in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. These include ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Kamet Steel, Interpipe Steel, Dnipro Metallurgical Plant, Zaporizhstal, and Dniprospetsstal. Analysts note that these facilities are highly vulnerable to attack due to their identifiable geographic locations and insufficient protection systems. In September, Ukraine recorded a record week where not a single ton of steel was produced.