Ukraine sugar production forecast declines to 1 million tons

Sugar production in Ukraine is projected to decline, with Ukrtsukor revising its forecasts from 1.2 million tons down to approximately 1 million tons. This reduction is attributed to deteriorating sugar beet growing conditions caused by spring frosts, late cold spells, and localized excessive rainfall, which have slowed plant development.

While production is falling, Ukrainian sugar exports have reached exceptionally high levels. As of August 7, 2026, 622,000 tons had been exported, surpassing the total for the previous season. Key destinations include the European Union, Uzbekistan, Lebanon, and Syria. The increase in exports to Central Asia is partly driven by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has boosted demand for Black Sea region sugar.

To bypass potential port blockades in the Black Sea, Ukrainian companies are increasingly utilizing land routes through Constanta, despite higher transport costs. The shifting supply dynamics are expected to increase price volatility within the European and Polish markets.