Ukrainian intelligence warns Russia could fight until 2028

Oleh Ivashchenko, head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), warned that Russia possesses sufficient resources to continue its war against Ukraine through 2027 and 2028. However, he noted that Moscow risks military exhaustion by 2028 if current casualty rates persist.

Ivashchenko reported that Russia is recruiting between 1,000 and 1,200 soldiers daily while losing approximately 1,400 to 1,500 personnel. He highlighted a high mortality rate of 60 percent among the wounded, attributed to increased drone usage and artificial intelligence on the battlefield. The intelligence chief also warned of intensified Russian attacks using ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as Shahed and kamikaze drones, specifically targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the upcoming autumn and winter.

Regarding international support, Ivashchenko emphasized the need for partners to restrict Russia’s access to electronic components and specialized chemicals through more effective sanctions. He also noted the involvement of allies, mentioning that North Korea could increase its contingent in the Kursk region to 50,000 soldiers and that Belarus is hosting drone relay stations used to direct attacks toward Kyiv.