UNCTAD report: Fuel price shocks disproportionately impact developing economies

A report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicates that developing economies are bearing a disproportionate burden of global fuel price increases. These surges, triggered by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, have intensified inflation and strained public finances and household incomes.

Between February 28 and October 20, 2026, global diesel prices rose 81 per cent, gasoline rose 64 per cent, and jet fuel rose 80 per cent. Africa experienced an even higher increase in jet fuel prices at 89 per cent. The report attributes these rises to constrained refining capacity, rising shipping costs, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have led to longer shipping routes and reduced vessel availability.

Data shows the financial impact is uneven: the cost of purchasing 40 litres of diesel relative to monthly GDP per capita rose by 10.9 per cent in low-income countries, compared to just 0.4 per cent in high-income nations. Additionally, while oil continues to flow from the Persian Gulf, significant portions of the price are being diverted to insurance and shipping companies due to the heightened risks of navigating the strait.