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UNEP warns 1.5°C warming threshold will be exceeded in coming years

A new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that the global community is on track to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold established by the Paris Agreement within the next few years. The report shifts the climate strategy from avoiding this threshold to managing the inevitable overshoot.

In the most optimistic scenario, global warming is projected to peak at approximately 1.8°C before declining. However, current policies suggest a median warming of 2.6°C by the end of the century. To return to 1.5°C levels, the report recommends an ‘overshoot, peak and decline’ pathway, which requires drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions—particularly methane—and the implementation of large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, such as reforestation and direct air capture.

The consequences of exceeding this limit are severe. Vulnerable regions, such as Pacific Island nations, face significant threats including a 65% loss in coastal fishery catches, saltwater intrusion into freshwater reserves, and increased risks of food and water insecurity. Additionally, the report warns of intensified extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and the potential for irreversible damage to ecosystems and ice sheets.

Entities

Antonio Guterres · Debra Roberts · Greenpeace International · Inger Andersen · International Energy Agency · Julia K. Green · Nairobi · Pacific Island nations · Paris Agreement · Richard Betts · United Nations Environment Programme · University of Arizona

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19 days ago