United Kingdom faces 4% GDP loss a decade after Brexit, study finds

A Deutsche Bank analysis using a synthetic control model estimates that the United Kingdom’s economy is about 4% smaller than it would have been had it remained in the European Union. The shortfall translates to roughly 685,000 jobs lost and consumer prices about 0.7% higher than in the counterfactual scenario. The report attributes much of the divergence to weaker business investment and under‑performing goods exports to the EU after the 2021 trade agreement, while noting some gains such as greater regulatory flexibility, a stronger stance in AI regulation, and improved services exports.

Public sentiment has also shifted: nearly half of Britons now support holding a new EU membership referendum, reflecting growing concerns over the economic and political consequences of the 2016 vote. The findings underscore ongoing debate about whether closer ties with the EU could boost growth without reversing the decision to leave.