United States oil production projected to reach new record in 2026

The United States is projected to reach a new record in oil production, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting an average daily output of 13.8 million barrels of crude oil in 2026. This would surpass the previous record of 13.7 million barrels set in 2025.

Growth is primarily driven by the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, as well as offshore production in the federal areas of the Gulf of Mexico. The EIA expects the Permian Basin alone to produce an average of 6.8 million barrels per day in 2026. Higher oil prices have been a significant factor in this expansion; WTI crude averaged $84 per barrel through August, compared to $65 in 2025.

Data from the Energy Institute indicates that the U.S. has cemented its position as the world’s largest oil producer. Measured by energy content, U.S. production has climbed above 10,000 terawatt-hours annually, significantly outpacing major producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. This surge, fueled by hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, has reshaped global energy markets and reduced U.S. dependence on foreign crude imports.