United States questions Lebanon's commitment to Hezbollah disarmament

The United States is adopting a policy of “conditionality and verification” regarding Lebanon’s commitment to disarming Hezbollah and establishing state sovereignty. While Lebanese officials, including General Joseph Aoun, have proposed a shift in rhetoric—including seeking a security agreement with Israel and positioning the Lebanese Army as the sole legitimate authority in the south—U.S. officials express skepticism regarding the credibility and feasibility of these claims.

A report by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) warns that Lebanon may be pursuing a “phantom peace model,” similar to the Oslo Accords era. This model suggests that Beirut might sign preliminary agreements to secure international support and financial aid without fulfilling core obligations, such as disarming armed groups.

U.S. sources note a fundamental disagreement over the sequence of implementation: Lebanon views Israeli withdrawal as a prerequisite for deploying the army and disarming Hezbollah, whereas Israel maintains that its withdrawal is conditional upon the disarmament of Hezbollah. Furthermore, concerns persist regarding the Lebanese Army’s actual capacity and willingness to engage in direct confrontation with Hezbollah to enforce state authority.