University of Valladolid study warns of increased cyclone risk for Iberian Peninsula

Researchers from the University of Valladolid (UVa) have warned that rising pollutant emissions are creating conditions more favorable for the formation and intensification of tropical transitions in the North Atlantic. According to the study, published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science-Nature, the Iberian Peninsula serves as a primary gateway for these weather systems into southwestern Europe.

While tropical cyclones have traditionally been more common in the Pacific, recent years have seen them threaten European coasts, such as during cyclones Ophelia and Leslie in 2017 and 2018. To track these risks, researchers developed the Tropical Transition Favorability Index (TTFI). This index, created in collaboration with the Complutense University, CSIC, and AEMET, measures environmental favorability by balancing thermodynamic factors, such as sea surface temperature, with dynamic atmospheric factors.