US 12.5% Tariff on Nigerian Exports Expected to Have Limited Impact

The United States announced a 12.5% tariff on selected Nigerian goods under Section 301 of the Trade Act, targeting products that do not qualify for forced‑labour exemptions. The tariff applies to a small share of Nigeria’s export basket; more than 80% of Nigerian merchandise shipped to the U.S. – chiefly crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products – are exempt.

Analysts note that the United States accounts for only about 5.6% of Nigeria’s total merchandise exports, ranking fifth among its trading partners. Consequently, the overall effect on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign‑exchange receipts and macro‑economic performance is expected to be modest. Nigeria’s growing non‑oil sector – which recorded a record $6.1 billion in export receipts in 2025 – may feel tighter price competitiveness, but the scale of the tariff’s impact remains limited.

The Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) cited Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the centre, emphasizing that the dominant oil‑based export stream will shield the economy from major disruption despite concerns among non‑oil exporters.