US 2026 midterm elections: Polling and prediction market analysis

As the 2026 midterm elections approach, analysts are highlighting the distinct differences between traditional polling and prediction markets. While polls measure reported voter intentions through representative sampling, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket reflect the expectations of traders betting on specific outcomes.

Experts note that polling accuracy faces challenges, particularly regarding respondent participation. For instance, data suggests Republicans may be less likely to participate in surveys, which can skew results and make it difficult to distinguish shifts in public opinion from changes in demographic response rates.

In contrast, prediction markets show what bettors believe will happen rather than what voters claim they will do. Both methods provide different snapshots of key races in states such as North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, Maine, and Michigan.