US and China compete for AI-driven global dominance

Historian Niall Ferguson, researcher Lisa Klaassen, and former Google director Eric Schmidt argue in a Foreign Affairs essay that the United States and China are forging a new type of empire. This dominance extends beyond traditional territory, trade routes, and airspace to encompass control over knowledge itself.

By controlling large language models, semiconductors, physical infrastructure, and the capital required for advanced artificial cognition, both powers are setting the parameters for future scientific and intellectual progress. The authors suggest that the term ‘AI superpowers’ is insufficient to describe the influence these rivals exert over other nations seeking access to advanced technology.

Drawing on imperial history, the authors warn that empires often fail not due to external enemies, but because the cost of defending their vast domains exhausts their material resources, the consent of the governed, or the loyalty of their elites. They cite historical precedents such as the financial collapse of the British Empire after 1945 and the institutional failures of the Qing Dynasty as cautionary examples of imperial decline.