U.S. back-to-school spending expected to be moderate
Back-to-school shopping is expected to be “moderate at best,” according to a report from Circana. While total spending may be influenced by pricing, unit demand remains low as consumers prioritize essential items like school supplies and technology over discretionary goods.
Data indicates that retail sales revenue decreased 1% year-over-year in July, with unit sales dropping 2%. Growth is increasingly concentrated among higher-income consumers, as many shoppers are practicing careful prioritization rather than expanding their overall spending.
Financial pressures are also impacting household behavior. According to Omnisend, approximately 40% of parents expect to feel more financial stress during this back-to-school season compared to 2025. Consequently, 45% of U.S. households plan to utilize “buy now, pay later” financing for these purchases, an increase from 39% the previous year.