US beef prices hit record highs as cattle herd reaches 75‑year low

U.S. beef prices have surged to record levels as the national cattle herd fell 8% to 86.7 million head by January 2025, the lowest size in 75 years. The decline is tied to severe drought and wildfires that have burned pastureland, forcing ranchers to sell cattle early and curtail herd expansion. Retail ground‑beef prices reached a record $8.62 per pound in May, up more than 12 % year‑on‑year, while a Wells Fargo Agri‑Food Institute estimate predicts the cost of a typical 10‑person July 4 barbecue rose 2.4 % to $161, driven by a 14 % jump in hamburger beef prices.

Consumers are turning to cheaper proteins such as chicken and pork, with surveys showing chicken breast prices rising 3.5 % and pork chops 4.7 % over the same period. President Donald Trump has called for low‑tariff Argentine beef imports to cool prices and directed the Department of Justice to probe possible collusion among U.S. meatpackers. The U.S. also continues to block Mexican cattle imports to prevent the spread of screwworm parasites, further tightening supply. Biologically, rebuilding the herd takes at least two years, meaning high prices are likely to persist.

Industry analysts note that the combination of weather‑driven supply constraints, trade barriers, and limited short‑term levers makes it difficult to alleviate the shortage, reinforcing the upward pressure on beef costs throughout the summer.