US CEOs' Confidence Shifts Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

A May 2026 Sentry survey of 625 U.S. executives found that 82% are more worried about their businesses than at the end of 2025, with 88% saying rapid geopolitical events make risk management difficult. Sixty‑one percent say geopolitics has negatively affected their firms, and 98% say 2026 events have altered long‑term planning, prompting many to shorten planning horizons and add contingencies. Top concerns include supply‑chain disruptions, tariffs, labor shortages and higher gas prices. Executives anticipate a positive impact from the Supreme Court’s ruling that invalidates certain emergency tariffs.

The Conference Board’s Q3 2026 CEO Confidence Index rose to 52 from 47 in Q2, reflecting modest optimism tied to easing Middle‑East tensions and lower oil prices. Fewer CEOs (19%) now expect the economy to worsen, down from 40% previously. While CEOs remain more upbeat about their own industries, they rank cybersecurity and artificial intelligence as the leading risks, followed by geopolitics. Workforce outlook shows a net expectation of hiring growth.