US-China relations: The Thucydides Trap is not inevitable

Analysis suggests that the 'Thucydides Trap'—the theory that a rising power and an established hegemon are destined for conflict—is not an inevitability in the relationship between the United States and China. While structural frictions exist, war remains a political choice that can be managed through institutional safeguards, economic integration, and crisis management mechanisms.

Modern constraints such as nuclear deterrence, the UN Charter's prohibition on aggressive war, and deep bilateral economic ties provide stabilizers that did not exist in ancient Greece. Furthermore, public opinion in both nations indicates that war is viewed as an existential threat, suggesting that diplomatic and strategic adjustments can facilitate a managed coexistence.