US considers stricter controls on semiconductor equipment and optical transceivers

Reports indicate intensifying US efforts to restrict China's access to critical semiconductor and optical communication technologies. A report from the Center for Technology & Statecraft (CTS) warns that Chinese chipmakers have stockpiled hundreds of deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems, including ASML's NXT:1980i models, which are capable of producing 7nm logic chips and advanced memory for AI processors. Former export control officials urge a total ban on DUV exports to China to maintain a decade-long technological advantage in AI chip manufacturing.

Simultaneously, Morgan Stanley suggests the US may implement restrictions on next-generation 3.2T optical transceivers, potentially adding them to the FCC Covered List as early as October. While current 800G and 1.6T technologies are not the immediate target, the policy aims to reshape the supply chain before 3.2T reaches mass deployment around 2028-2029. To mitigate supply risks, the US may allow Chinese assembly of modules provided they meet a threshold of over 65% US-origin component value, utilizing components from firms like Marvell, Lumentum, or Coherent.