US consumer spending and branded merchandise markets show significant shifts

A study by Oxford Economics commissioned by PPAI reveals that the U.S. branded merchandise market reached $174 billion last year, representing approximately 51% of global spending. This total includes $124 billion in licensed merchandise and $50 billion in promotional products. The promotional products sector alone is estimated to account for roughly 13% of total U.S. advertising spending by 2025.

Separately, retail data from the first half of 2026 indicates a shift in American consumer behavior. While the number of transactions fell by 7% year-over-year, total consumer spending increased by 8%. This growth was driven by a 16% rise in average order value, moving from $111 to $130. The increase is attributed largely to a 13% rise in per-item prices, suggesting consumers are trading up to more expensive products despite fewer shopping trips. Additionally, while browsing volume increased by 6%, conversion rates dropped by 12%, indicating more deliberate comparison shopping.