U.S. Consumer Spending Remains Strong for Back‑to‑School Despite Low Sentiment

Analysts argue that corporate outlook, reflected in CFO surveys, is a more reliable leading indicator for the U.S. economy than consumer sentiment. The Duke CFO Global Business Outlook shows CFOs remain optimistic about their firms' near‑term prospects, even though past consumer optimism has lagged during recessions.

Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation reports back‑to‑school spending is on pace to reach $146.8 billion this year, up from $128.2 billion a year earlier. Despite concerns about inflation, high gas prices and rising credit‑card debt, shoppers plan to maintain spending on school‑related items, with many willing to trim other expenses, use buy‑now‑pay‑later options or work extra hours.

Both pieces highlight a divergence between consumer confidence and actual spending behavior, suggesting that business‑driven metrics may better forecast economic trends.